New analysis suggests the UK’s prime residential market has entered its most decisive correction since the mid-1990s.

Research by Jackson-Stops shows that the price threshold for the top 1% of homes—long the fastest-growing segment of the market—peaked in 2022 and has since fallen sharply. For almost three decades, this threshold rose far faster than the wider market across England and Wales, but that pattern has now reversed.

Top-End Prices Down 25% Since 2022

Outside London, the cost of entering the top 1% of the market has dropped from £1.67 million in 2022 to £1.25 million in 2025—a fall of 25% in just three years.
Jackson-Stops attributes this shift to lower transaction volumes at the highest price points, combined with a softening in values. It marks the first sustained period in which the prime segment has underperformed the broader housing market.

Potential Mansion Tax Could Deepen the Correction

With the Autumn Budget approaching, concerns are growing that additional taxation at the upper end—particularly rumours of a mansion tax on homes over £2 million, potentially collected through council tax—could intensify the ongoing decline.

The proposals, still unconfirmed, have prompted warnings that further fiscal pressure on high-value properties may accelerate the correction already taking place.

Long-Term Data Shows a Historic Realignment

Drawing on Land Registry data, Jackson-Stops examined price thresholds at the 99th, 90th, 50th and 10th percentiles from 1995 to 2025.

Key findings include:

• In 1995, the 1% threshold outside London was £245,000.
• By 2022 it had climbed to £1.67 million, propelled by decades of accessible credit and rising wealth among equity-rich buyers.
• Since 2022, prices for the top 1% have fallen 25%, bringing the threshold down to £1.25 million in 2025.
• Prices for lower-value homes have continued to edge upwards, while mid-market prices remain broadly stable.

• This has created a rare compression between median prices and the prime market, not seen for nearly 30 years.

“2022 Was the Peak” — Jackson-Stops

Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, said: “For decades, the prime market has defied gravity, consistently outpacing every other segment. Our data shows that 2022 was likely the peak of that 30-year cycle, with realignment happening ever since. It is likely this is as much about subdued activity due to the high tax on moving at prime levels, as it is about individual house prices.”

He added that any further tax changes must be approached with caution:

“This existing downward pressure at the top end needs to be considered against wider housing market stability. Many prospective sellers, particularly those with mortgages, will be asset-rich and cash-poor. Understanding the limits of raising revenue from perceived wealth rather than income, against decades of unprecedented house price inflation and vast regional disparities, is absolutely critical. Any cliff-edge reforms could put additional roadblocks in the way for movers and risk capital flight, consequently slowing down economic activity.”