The UK housing market experienced a month of flat growth and a sharp deceleration in the annual price increase, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index. The data suggests the pre-Autumn Budget uncertainty contributed to a market slowdown, particularly across the South of England.

Southern Regions Record Monthly Price Falls

On a monthly basis, UK house prices were flat, but three key southern regions saw average values decline in November:

• London: Prices fell by 1.0% month-on-month. The capital remains the most expensive region, with the average property costing £539,766.

• South East: Prices dropped by 0.3%.

• Eastern England: Prices saw a marginal decrease of 0.1%.

Annually, the rate of growth slowed significantly across the UK, dropping from 1.9% in October to 0.7% in November—the weakest annual rate recorded since March 2024. The average UK house price now stands at £299,892.

Regional Performance: The North and Northern Ireland Lead

In contrast to the South, regional strength continues to be found in the North and in Northern Ireland:

• Northern Ireland remained the UK’s strongest performing region, with prices rising by 8.9% over the past year to an average of £220,716.

• In England, the North West recorded the highest annual growth at 3.2% (£245,070), followed by the North East at 2.9% (£180,939).

• Scotland saw annual growth of 3.7% (£216,781).

• Wales recorded a rise of 1.9% (£229,430).

Outlook: Affordability Improves as Tax Pressure Mounts

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, highlighted the consistency of prices, calling the last year “one of the most stable… over the last decade.” She noted that the slower growth is positive for first-time buyers, with affordability now at its strongest since late 2015 and mortgage costs (as a share of income) at their lowest level in around three years.

However, analysts also pointed to caution:

• Tax Squeeze: Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, warned that while market clarity has returned post-Budget, the new array of tax rises will increasingly squeeze demand.

• Supply & Sentiment: Iain McKenzie, Chief Executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, attributed the slowdown to higher market supply and buyers “pushing the paused button” ahead of the Budget. He expects buyers and sellers to re-engage with renewed confidence now that uncertainty has passed.

Prime London Sees Sharpest Decline

The market’s pressure points were most visible in the high-end London market:

• Prime Central London (PCL) prices fell 4.3% annually in November—the widest decline since February 2021.

• Despite this decline, sales volumes in PCL and Prime Outer London (POL) actually rose last month, with the number of exchanges for properties above £5 million up by 21% compared to the five-year average. This suggests some high-value buyers accelerated transactions ahead of potential tax changes.