The first few days of August have delivered a series of optimistic figures, setting a positive tone for the autumn property market.

House Prices and Transactions Are Up According to the Nationwide house price index, the average UK house price rose by 0.6% between June and July, bringing the annual growth rate to 2.4%. This puts the average price at £272,664. Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, commented that “activity appears to be holding up well,” with mortgage approvals for house purchases in June being in line with the pre-pandemic average.

This resilience is supported by new data from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), which shows that residential property transactions increased by 13% in June, reaching 93,530 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This rebound in transactions suggests that the market is recovering from the volatility seen earlier in the year.

Bank of England Rate Cut Expected A major driver of this growing confidence is the improving mortgage environment. Analysts are now almost unanimous in their prediction that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will cut the base rate by a quarter of a percentage point when it meets this week.

This anticipated rate cut, following previous reductions, is already being factored into mortgage deals, with lenders continuing to trim their rates. Mark Harris, chief executive at SPF Private Clients, notes that “base rate reductions encourage activity and enable borrowers to plan ahead with more confidence.”

A Resilient and Active Market Property professionals are echoing this positive sentiment. Jeremy Leaf, a North London estate agent, reports that “transactions are holding together relatively well,” and anticipates a “modest improvement all round.” Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says that the market “isn’t slowing down for summer,” with agents seeing full diaries of viewings and off-market sales.

Iain McKenzie, chief executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, sums up the current climate: “This isn’t a market running hot, but one that is responding logically to improved conditions.” With borrower confidence on the rise and a more favorable mortgage environment, all eyes are now on the Bank of England to provide the widely expected boost to the market.

According to a recent report from Zoopla, the UK property market is showing signs of resilience and renewed activity, defying the typical summer slowdown. Here’s a breakdown of the key points from the report and other related market information:

Market Activity and Buyer Confidence

• Increased Activity: Buyer demand is up by 11% and agreed sales have climbed by 8% year-on-year, a significant increase that signals improving buyer confidence.
• Borrowing Power: Lenders are becoming more competitive, with mortgage brokers reporting that homebuyers can now borrow up to 20% more at the same interest rate than they could a few months ago.
• Record Supply: There is a record number of homes on the market, with a 12% increase in supply compared to the previous year. This creates a “buyers’ market” in many areas, as buyers have more choice.

House Prices and Forecasts

• Slowing Growth: National house price growth has cooled to a modest 1.3%. This is a slowdown from the 2.1% growth seen six months ago.
• Revised Forecast: Zoopla has revised its 2025 house price growth forecast down from 2% to 1%, citing increased supply and higher stamp duty costs as tempering factors.
• Transaction Outlook: Despite the slower price growth, the forecast for property transactions remains positive, with a predicted 5% increase in sales for 2025 compared to 2024.

Regional Disparities

• North vs. South: The market is performing unevenly across the UK. The Midlands, North, Wales, and Northern Ireland are experiencing healthier price rises (between 2-3%) and greater market momentum due to more affordable housing stock and less exposure to new tax burdens.
• South’s Challenges: Conversely, London and the South East are facing a slowdown in buyer appetite and limited price growth, largely due to higher stamp duty costs and affordability ceilings.

External Factors and Future Outlook

• Stamp Duty: The end of temporary stamp duty reliefs in April 2025 has increased costs for many buyers, particularly in England and Northern Ireland, which is putting downward pressure on prices in higher-value areas.
• Bank of England: Many in the industry are looking to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting in August, with expectations of a potential rate cut from 4.25% to 4%. A rate cut could further boost market activity and buyer confidence.
• Political and Economic Uncertainty: The housing market continues to mirror the wider UK economy—tentative and uneven. The prospect of an autumn Budget is also a factor, with some buyers choosing to wait and see if there will be further fiscal changes.