Zoopla’s latest House Price Index for October indicates that the UK housing market is experiencing its strongest sales activity since the pandemic boom in 2020. Key findings from the report include:

1. Sales Pipeline and Value: The pipeline of sales agreed is the largest in four years, 30% higher than last year, with the total value of these homes reaching £130bn.
2. Market Dynamics:
   • Buyer Demand: Up 22% year-on-year, supported by lower mortgage rates and rising incomes.
   • Supply and Stock: New listings are up 13%, and total stock is up 11%.
   • House Prices: While demand and supply are increasing, house prices are only up 1% annually to £267,500. Regional differences persist, with prices rising faster in more affordable regions (like Northern Ireland at 5.6%) while slipping slightly in pricier areas (e.g., Eastern and South East England).
3. First-Time Buyers (FTBs):
   • FTBs are the largest buyer group in 2024, accounting for 36% of sales, partly driven by landlords selling off properties. Notably, 12% of homes listed for sale were previously rented, with London having the highest concentration.
   • However, potential changes in Stamp Duty exemptions could hit FTBs hard next year. Currently, 80% of FTBs pay no Stamp Duty, but this may change, particularly impacting those in Southern England.
4. Outlook for 2024: Zoopla projects a modest 2% house price increase and a total of 1.1 million sales. Richard Donnell, Zoopla’s executive director, emphasized the need for a stable policy environment, focusing on economic growth rather than short-term changes that could affect affordability and accessibility in housing.
5. Policy Implications: Nathan Emerson of Propertymark echoed the need for policy stability and called for Stamp Duty reform to encourage downsizing and free up housing stock. He also hopes for an interest rate cut to improve housing affordability and economic growth.

This data paints a cautiously optimistic picture for the housing market, with rising buyer confidence and manageable price growth, though affordability pressures remain a challenge, especially for first-time buyers facing potential Stamp Duty changes.