Writing in Landlord Today, Louisa Sedgwick, Paragon Bank’s Managing Director of Mortgages, warns that the Renters’ Rights Bill will have the biggest impact on tenants.

The article can be seen here, and in summary:

The film Don’t Look Up portrays the frustration of scientists as political leaders ignore an impending disaster. While the Renters’ Rights Bill (RRB) may not be an extinction-level event, the government’s failure to recognise warning signs of a housing crisis feels eerily similar.

Let’s be clear—the RRB will increase homelessness and harm the very tenants it aims to protect. The warning lights are already flashing.

A London School of Economics report, commissioned by Crisis, found councils spent £732 million on temporary housing in the year to April 2024—an 80% rise on the previous year. At the same time, Section 21 eviction notices hit an eight-year high as landlords rushed to regain control of their properties before the RRB takes effect.

Local councils are at ‘breaking point,’ according to Crisis, with a lack of social housing and soaring rents pushing low-income families out of the private rented sector (PRS). The situation will only get worse.

The RRB will drive landlords to be more selective with tenants and raise rents to offset increased costs. Faced with longer eviction processes, they will be understandably cautious. Additionally, restricting rent in advance—a crucial option for tenants with poor credit—will make it even harder for lower-income households to secure homes.

The government argues that abolishing Section 21 will ease homelessness, but this is misleading. Evictions will still happen due to rent arrears, anti-social behaviour, or a landlord’s need to sell—only the process will shift to Section 8.

Officials also dismiss concerns that landlords will leave the sector. While a mass exodus is unlikely, the combination of the RRB and new energy efficiency rules may push many smaller landlords out. But the real issue isn’t landlords selling—it’s the stagnation of PRS stock. With demand soaring, tenants are staying put longer, reducing churn and further limiting supply, which drives up rents.

With an expected population increase of five million by 2032, the housing crisis will only intensify. Even if the government meets its target of 1.5 million new homes, it won’t be enough.

A metaphorical meteorite is hurtling towards our housing system, and those on society’s margins will bear the brunt of the impact.